"A Tale of 2 Twenties"

See video here

Recently, I met a home seller in a nice area of Victoria.  Her home was similar to one property down the street in configuration, size and age.  It was not similar in condition:  hers was dated, worn, smelly (wet dog!) and presented itself poorly.

She was not able to understand the difference in homes and consequently expected the same amount for her home as the other (which has not yet sold so may actually also be overpriced- this is another story altogether!).

Luckily for me, I had 2 $20 bills in my wallet of similar different condition and showed her how 2 items of identical value can have completely different reactions in the marketplace based on condition.  She understood fully after the demonstration!

2012 Real Estate stats month to date Feb 20

 

	MTD	February
	2012	2011
Net Unconditional Sales:	311	488
New Listings:	818	1,276
Active Listings:	3,676	3,714

View Tony's video report for the week here

Provincial changes in HST

CMHC predicts little change in Canadian housing market in 2012 and 2013

OTTAWA - Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is predicting the Canadian housing market will remain fairly stable this year and next, with little change from 2011 in prices, new home construction and sales of existing homes.
The national housing agency said Monday in its first-quarter 2012 report that the foreseen stability stems from an economy that appears set to expand at only a moderate pace over the next two years. The Bank of Canada's key overnight rate — which affects mortgages tied to prime rates — will likely remain low until mid-2013, which should also act to keep activity on an even keel.
"With the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen in 2011," CMHC deputy economist Mathieu Laberge said in a statement.
Low mortgage rates and high demand have driven housing prices sharply higher in large urban centres such as Toronto and Vancouver, leading many experts to warn that a housing bubble could burst when rates finally do rise.
Despite those warnings and alarms from top government officials that Canadians are taking on too much debt overall, the housing market has seen little change over the past few years, with price growth slowing but not retreating in most areas.
The CMHC says it expects the average house price in Canada to hit $368,900 for 2012, with a projected range between $330,000 and $410,000, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association's MLS service.
For 2013, that number rises to $379,000, with a range between $335,000 and $430,000.
"The moderate increases in the average MLS price are consistent with the balanced market conditions that occurred in 2011, and that are expected to continue in 2012 and 2013," CMHC said.
Housing starts are expected to be around 190,000 units this year and 193,800 units in 2013, while existing home sales are expected at about 457,300 units in 2012 and moving a little higher to 468,200 units in 2013.
The CMHC predicted that housing starts will be in the range of 164,000 to 212,700 units in 2012, and between 168,900 to 219,300 units in 2013. Existing home sales are expected in a range from 406,000 to 504,500 units in 2012, rising to 417,600 to 517,400 units in 2013.
Western Canada is expected to see strong growth in new housing starts, with Alberta leading the way with a 13.2 per cent increase. However, the agency said it expects housing starts in Saskatchewan to contract by about 2.7 per cent in 2013.
In Eastern Canada, all provinces are expected to see a contraction in housing starts for 2012, with "modest growth" returning to Quebec and Ontario in 2013.
The agency noted that the fate of an economic recovery in the United States, Canada's largest single trading partner, could have an immediate affect on Canada's housing industry —
"Some upsides include the potential that the U.S. could recover more quickly than anticipated, which would be positive for U.S. employment and economic growth," CMHC said.
"In turn, this could boost employment growth in Canada and thus lead to a stronger than expected housing market."
Conversely, if the U.S. recovery hits a snag and emerging economies see their growth slow while Europe suffers a slowdown, that could lead to slower employment growth in Canada and place a chilling effect on the demand for housing.

By: The Canadian Press

Posted: 02/13/2012 8:07 AM

January Month to Date sales stats

Monday, January 30, 2012 8:00am

	MTD	January
	2012	2011
Net Unconditional Sales:	328	339
New Listings:	978	1,187
Active Listings:	3,551	3,283

See Tony's video report here

www.tonyjoe.ca
tony@tonyjoe.ca

2.99% interest rate. How much lower can it get?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/lock+Pondering+merits+rate+financing/6025780/story.html

In 1991, my very first clients secured an excellent rate of 13.5%.  Over the years, I've heard economists, consumers and financial experts say "it can't get any lower" when rates dropped past 7%, 6%, 5% and even the 4% in the not to distant past.


There are some who believe that high inventory, low rates and uncertain global economy will translate to plummeting prices but Victoria market fundamentals have always proven those to be incorrect assumptions.


I'll never forget a gentleman I met about 10 years ago:  he wanted to sell his house because he felt Victoria prices would drop 50% in the next 6 months.  Another agent sold his house and he ended up in the rental market only to watch prices DOUBLE in the 5 year span of 2002-2007.  He effectively removed  himself from an upward moving market and had to repurchase at a drastically higher price.  I would call that a massive error- the economists and opinons he believed in betrayed him!

Last night I had a chat with Ken Strattford, www.businessvictoria.net who mentioned an article last week written by an economist in Florida who was quoted saying Victoria Real Estate prices will drop 60-70% in the next 12 months.  What?????  I'm not sure where he's getting this idea:  we have the lowest vacancy rate in Canada, strong annual net migration of 3500 or so persons, and have a diverse economy including Government, Tourism, Military, Universities, Lifestyle (weather) and a growing Technology sector. 

I need to find this Floridian economist and invite him to a game of blackjack.  I may be totally unskilled at gambling but with a guestimate like his I'd stand to make some money!

Weekly Victoria Real Estate stats: Jan 16 2012

Monday, January 16, 2012 8:00am

	MTD	January
	2012	2011
Net Unconditional Sales:	154	339
New Listings:	497	1,187
Active Listings:	3,428	3,283

There's lots of activity out there, even though the numbers may not give that impression.  Looks like we will (again!) exceed last year's sale figures but the dusting of snow we've had has definitely caused a few rescheduled appointments or delays in activity.

We are fielding many calls from owners who put off listing their home for sale in 2011, being ready to go now.  As a result, the inventory for January will again be high- many options for those looking to buy!

Surrey woman ordered to sell condo over strata complaints: Times Colonist

New precedence set in the Province of BC.  This answers concerns that buyers occasionally have about what happens with problematic neighbours.  It will be interesting to see where this decision goes with time.


Link to Times Colonist article here

Tips on selecting an agent

There are 1300 Real Estate professionals serving Greater Victoria.  Here are some pointers on how to find the right person for you:

·         Do you feel a connection with the agent?

Buying or Selling a home is a complicated process.  Does the agent give you the sense of competence, experience and knowledge?  Do you feel you can trust this person and does rapport exist?

·         Is he/she a Buyers Agent or a Sellers Agent?

Most agents do both.  But many specialize in exclusively working with buyers or with sellers.  Be sure to ask.

·         Does the agent have recent experience in this price range and market area?

An agent who specializes in condo sales may not be able to provide valuable advice on commercial properties or vice versa.  A true professional will explain their scope of expertise.

·         How accessible is the agent?

If you require someone who can respond quickly to emails and text messaging, you need to determine in advance how the agent handles contact from you.

·         What are the agent’s previous successes?

Testimonials from recent customers is a great way to gauge the agent’s dealings with other people.  Good agents keep testimonials and often will provide contact information for you to speak directly with previous customers.  You do background checks on employees or tenants- why not on your agent too?

If you are interviewing agents to serve you, please add us to your list.  We’d be pleased to show you our results with buyers and sellers and demonstrate how we can help you reach your Real Estate goal.     

info@tonyjoe.ca

250-370-7788

Ocean View suite at "The Pier"

Just listed!  2007 built luxury condo at "The Pier" residences and resort.

Media link here